Super Tuesday Predictions

Over at Daily Kos, diarist Poblano has written an excellent state-by-state breakdown of Super Tuesday/February 5th. I had planned on doing something similar, but the graphical analysis in that post is comprehensive. I have a few comments, however:

• As stated, the debate tonight at 8pm is major. With Edwards out of the race, there will be no "teaming up" and hopefully Obama and Clinton will be allowed to debate each other. Unfortunately, it will be "moderated" by Wolf Blitzkrieg, so I'm sure Clinton will be allowed some cheap shots. The Snub is this debates Race War and I expect an awkward hand-shake or hug between the two.
• The two major endorsements to be expected are Edwards and Richardson (I doubt Gore endorses because he has nothing to gain) and they could happen between now and Tuesday. I believe a Richardson endorsement is more important because of the influence he supposedly has in the Latino communities of CA, NM, and AZ. An Edwards endorsement is less important now because his supporters are ideologically inline with Obama, though this could change if his delegates are needed in the convention.
• As Poblano suggests, the most likely situation is the nomination being open with the media calling a slight frontrunner.
• Most of the states will probably be close, and the proportional delegate distribution is the main factor in the likely closeness of the race. However, I think the Kennedy endorsement is underestimated in MA and CT and Obama will make up more ground there.
• Momentum is definitely going for Obama - it was just announced that he raised a staggering $32 million in January alone. Aside from a Richardson endorsement of Clinton, I don't see this changing (unless the debate is really nasty). Momentum will be a key decider for the undecided voters in these states.

I'll definitely be watching the entire debate and I'll post about it afterwards.