Texas is not a slam dunk for Obama, but his momentum over the last two weeks cannot be denied. Wild cards include the effects of early voting, state senate based allocation of delegates, and what are sure to be chaotic and contested caucuses. Still, I think it will all add up for an Obama win.
Despite similar demographics to Wisconsin and a larger African-American population, Obama's momentum hasn't been enough to catch Clinton in Ohio. It looks like Clinton's base is sticking with her. However, even a win here will barely net her any delegates. Obviously, that won't stop Penn/Wolfson/et al from harping about it, reality be damned.
Vermont and Rhode Island seem to be securely in the fold for Obama and Clinton, respectively. Even large wins will result in small delegate gains, but neither campaign is taking these states for granted, campaigning there between longer stays in Ohio and Texas.
Whereas a tie a month ago began the momentum towards Obama, a tie at this point hurts him. The Clinton campaign has been casting Obama as the frontrunner, with the March 4th primaries as a referendum on his status as such. For all their strategic incompetence, the Clinton campaign has been able to move the goalposts at their will. Luckily, Obama will most likely still hold a delegate lead as the calendar again starts to favor him. So, instead of ending her campaign once and for all, the slugfest will continue, possibly until April 22nd (a discouraging thought).
I also want to use this post to note how Obama has been able to turn Clinton's narrative against her. All the talk on Friday was about Clinton's ad titled "Children," with most pundits putting it in the fear-mongering category with "Daisies" from '64 and "Red Phone" from the Democratic primary in '84.
It's the same old message: I'm experienced, ready on day one, etc. Except now, appealing directly and superficially to the mothering instincts of women voters. Even her campaign couldn't name a "3am moment" in her career during a conference call, prattling on about military endorsements and the Armed Services Committee.
So, within about 12 hours of the ad coming out, the Obama team crafted a brilliant response ad that is a tribute to the professionalism and message discipline of his campaign. The ad insists that she had her 3am moment and blew it: the Iraq War vote.
As has been noted, the ability to fight off attack ads will no doubt help Obama in the general. And by the looks of March 4th, he'll have to fight off Clinton for another two months.
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